Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 577 km/s at 02/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/0845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1156 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 106
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-006/005-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/40