Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2014

By SpaceRef Editor
August 3, 2014
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/0312Z from Region 2132 (S19E18). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
459 km/s at 02/2329Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2121Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 03/1945Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Aug, 05 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (06 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (05 Aug, 06

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 152
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 010/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.