Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 August 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Aug,
05 Aug, 06 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 351 km/s at
03/1815Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2022Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 901 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Aug), quiet to active levels on day
two (05 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 107
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/20
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/25