Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 03/1309Z from Region 2976 (N20W78). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Apr) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 541 km/s at 02/2322Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 03/1553Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2159Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14 pfu at 02/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2596 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (06 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 65/15/10
Class X 25/05/01
Proton 50/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 140
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 130/120/120
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 019/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20