Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 03/0627Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/0427Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 477 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 071
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  009/012-008/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/25