Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 02/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1908 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Apr 068
Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        03 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25