Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 03/0726Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 605 km/s at 03/1650Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 03/0509Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 03/0735Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           03 Apr 120

Predicted   04 Apr-06 Apr 120/125/125

90 Day Mean        03 Apr 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr  022/012

Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr  012/016

Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr  012/015-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/25/10

Minor Storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/20/20

Major-severe storm    30/25/20