Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 3 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
03/0414Z from Region 2030 (N11E43). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr,
06 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 441 km/s at
03/0037Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/1828Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1446Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Apr, 05
Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 153
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 009/014-018/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/10
Minor Storm 15/20/01
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/20