Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1034Z from Region 2733 (N05W76). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (30 Jan, 31 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (01 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 29/0305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1250 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (01 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jan 073
Predicted   30 Jan-01 Feb 072/070/071
90 Day Mean        29 Jan 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan  000/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb  007/008-009/012-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/40/55