Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 646 km/s at 28/2226Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 49260 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 067
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/010-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20