Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 29/2042Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1591 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 069
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  006/005-009/012-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/25
Minor Storm           01/20/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/55/45