- Press Release
- Nov 25, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 090
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 041/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 012/016-011/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/50/40