Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 715 km/s at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38411 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 090
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 090/090/090
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  041/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  012/016-011/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/40