Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 766 km/s at 29/2013Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/0350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17486 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (30 Sep), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (01 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 083
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 081/078/080
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 024/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 028/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 024/038-024/030-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/30
Minor Storm 20/15/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 35/30/15