Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
September 29, 2015
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 29/0516Z from Region 2422 (S18W42). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 385 km/s at 29/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Sep, 01 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 129
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/008-008/008-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/40

 

SpaceRef staff editor.