Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/0554Z from Region 2177 (N11E31). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1647Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1496 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active
periods on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 175
Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 185/185/175
90 Day Mean 29 Sep 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 007/010-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/35