Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2013

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf event observed at
29/0525Z from Region 1850 (N10W60). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep,
01 Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 303 km/s at
29/1922Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 103
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 111

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  010/012-010/010-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10