Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 29/0409Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1653Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15796 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 085
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 088/088/082
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 008/008-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/45