Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 29/0712Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38548 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 069
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 008/010-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 35/20/20