Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 29/2050Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/2016Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 069
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  009/012-009/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/05
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    20/30/05