Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 28/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1705Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3103 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Oct 075
Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        29 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  005/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/15