Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 29, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/0021Z from Region 2443 (N05E67). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 29/2025Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2037Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 23 pfu at 29/1000Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 29/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 188 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Oct, 31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Oct 113
Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 110/105/105
90 Day Mean 29 Oct 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 010/012-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/30

SpaceRef staff editor.