Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/0332Z from Region 2192 (S13W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
495 km/s at 28/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2112Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2141Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 891 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Oct, 31
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day two (30 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M 85/85/65
Class X 45/45/35
Proton 45/45/35
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 167
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 155/145/135
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/010-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/40/35
