Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 29/0515Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 28/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 090
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10