Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 29/1311Z from an unnumbered region on the SE limb. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 426 km/s at 28/2106Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0416Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0431Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1664 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 116
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 115/113/113
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-008/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/50/50