Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 29/2008Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 695 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 070
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10