Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1633Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 068
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  005/005-019/024-021/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/45/45
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/70/70