Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 29/0821Z from Region 2222 (S21E30). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 436 km/s at 29/1531Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 29/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

Class M    45/50/50

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Nov 177

Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 180/180/180

90 Day Mean        29 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-011/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/25/25

Minor Storm           01/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/25/25

Major-severe storm    10/30/30