Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1006Z from Region 1907 (S09W22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec,
02 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
363 km/s at 29/1852Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1603Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/1253Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 129
Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 29 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/25