Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 29/1847Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/0100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 171 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 068
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 009/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10