Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/2313Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1206Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 29/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 29/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 490 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 076
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 074/073/072
90 Day Mean        29 May 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  032/049
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/05/05