Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 29/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 564 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 May), quiet to active levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 083
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 080/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 May 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 015/020-010/012-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 55/35/20