Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 29/1843Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/0224Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1219Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 092
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 090/095/100
90 Day Mean 29 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
