Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0430Z from Region 2071 (S10W61). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May,
31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
395 km/s at 29/1057Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/1910Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 29/0921Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 May, 31 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 103
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 29 May 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/20