Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 May 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/0218Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 May,
31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 632 km/s at
28/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38236 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 May, 31 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 107
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 29 May 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 005/005-005/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25