Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 29/0111Z from Region 2975 (N13W25). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (30 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 28/2201Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1550Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10 pfu at 28/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 570 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar), active to severe storm levels on day two (31 Mar) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (01 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 50/35/35
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 20/15/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 149
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 011/014-032/056-025/032

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/25
Minor Storm 30/20/35
Major-severe storm 15/45/25
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 70/80/70