Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 29/1727Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 43686 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 069
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  010/010-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    35/20/15