Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 763 km/s at 30/0624Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1823Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29502 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 083
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 083/082/082
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  022/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  020/024-015/020-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/10