Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
March 29, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/1530Z from Region 2303 (N18W92). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 28/2234Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Mar 145

Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/150

90 Day Mean        29 Mar 132

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  016/018

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  021/025-019/025-013/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                45/45/30

Minor Storm           30/30/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor Storm           20/20/30

Major-severe storm    70/70/35

 

SpaceRef staff editor.