Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/1748Z from Region 2017 (N10W34). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 29/0321Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/2127Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0203Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 143
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/35