Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar,
31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 534 km/s at 29/2059Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1439Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/1439Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 577
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (31 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (01
Apr).

III. Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Mar 105
Predicted 30 Mar-01 Apr 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 29 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 013/015-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/05
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05