Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 350 km/s at 29/1655Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1518Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 367 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 093
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 092/092/092
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/010-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/20