Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 29/0121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 069
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10