Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 28/2212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4596 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 069
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/25