- Status Report
- Feb 4, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 29/0145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 548 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 072
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/45