Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
June 29, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 29/0145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 548 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jun 072
Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        29 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  005/005-006/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/15/45

SpaceRef staff editor.