Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 June 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/1807Z from Region 2373 (N15E55). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at 29/1052Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0730Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0622Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 29/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7557 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (30 Jun, 02 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     05/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Jun 097

Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul 100/105/110

90 Day Mean        29 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  012/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/006

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  005/005-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/15/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           20/25/20

Major-severe storm    10/20/10