Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 28/2325Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3180 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 068
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20