Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (30 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 29/1813Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8287 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (31 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    10/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 070
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 075/082/082
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  006/005-010/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/20
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/40/30