Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 July 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
July 29, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 29/0827Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 29/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 071
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 011/012-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/10/10


SpaceRef staff editor.