Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/1651Z from Region 1800 (S08W84). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jul,
31 Jul, 01 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
468 km/s at 28/2240Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1301Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0126Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1035 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 112
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 004/005-004/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10