Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 29/1655Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 29/1044Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0158Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 28/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet levels on day two (31 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 125
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 128/130/125
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 009/010-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/30
Minor Storm 15/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 50/20/40